UK Election CamPAIN 2015
Scot What Not
At this point it is extremely difficult to envisage a UK election campaign result which would be a victory for anybody.
The Tories are currently projecting to win 277 seats, 49 short of the 326 required for an outright majority. Furthermore even another coalition with the Lib Dems is projecting to be 24 seats short of an outright majority which is great news for seekers of sanity in politics. Nigel is projecting to a total of four seats which would assure him of retaining his status as the country’s number one political nuisance.
The SNP is projecting to win 53 seats which conservatively speaking means they’re driving a governmental train-wreck which is scheduled go right off the rails after the election.
277 Tory seats plus 53 SNP seats gets a coalition over the line but it’s about as likely to happen is Nigel turning green and confessing that he migrated illegally from another planet.
Labour is projecting to win 269 seats and a coalition with the SNP’s 53 seats would total 322. Throw in 25 more from the Lib Dems and you’re well over the 326 needed for an outright win. But wait, a coalition with the SNP would in effect be a five year death sentence either the Tories or Labour.
The prospect of entering a coalition government with a party whose primary policy is to terminate it is like playing a footie match with key members of your team playing for the opposition.
Of course this uncertainty gives rise to several intriguing scenarios.
The Tories could possibly form a coalition with the SNP and then arrange for the Speaker to suspend the entire party from the House on the grounds that their presence threatens the very integrity of Parliament.
Alternatively they could immediately grant Scottish independence thereby banishing the SNP from Westminster. This would mean that another coalition with the Lib Dems, while abandoning all hope of good government for another five years, would produce an a parliamentary majority with the added benefit that the Lib Dems would almost certainly cease to exist at the end of it.
Logically the SNP strategy is to make things in Westminster so shambolic that the rest of the UK would be relieved to see the back of them. At this point that seems the best hope of the election producing any coherent outcome.